From High-Impact Decision Support, to Storm Surveys: A Local Collaborative Recap of the November 4th, 2022 Major Regional Tornado Outbreak

In the modern world of meteorology, severe weather events are typically very well forecast and communicated in advance of any inclement weather. It’s these forecasts, and the related strategic messaging of these forecasts, that National Weather Service (NWS) core partners depend on in order to make their life saving decisions. However, what if outside events and circumstances require extra attention to detail in partner messaging, as well as partner collaboration, leading up to major weather events?

On November 4th, 2022, over 30 tornadoes occurred across portions of East Texas, East Oklahoma, West Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana, with a large portion of these tornadoes being strong to violent (i.e., EF2+ on the Enhanced Fujita Scale). While multiple NWS offices covering the event issued Tornado Warnings, one particular NWS office issued two separate Tornado Emergencies (enhanced warnings meant to message the potential for catastrophic impacts to life and property) during this event for two separate supercell thunderstorms. Unfortunately, two people lost their lives in this regional tornado outbreak, with only one being directly attributed to the tornadoes. However, core partners, and countless others affected by the tornadoes, attribute the lack of considerably more fatalities to increased messaging and awareness efforts made by local NWS offices and members of the media. One emergency manager even credited the warning and Tornado Emergency issuance lead time as a direct factor in the number of lives saved on November 4th.

Leading up to the severe weather episode, increased vulnerabilities created by a State Fair and multiple collegiate events required extra collaboration with NWS national centers, as well as enhanced Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) with local partners. This presentation will explore all facets of that collaboration leading up to, during, and after the November 4th outbreak. It will also explore collaboration outside the walls of operations, given the long tracks of many tornadoes that required surveying. Lastly, this presentation will examine specifics of tornado warning decisions made on that day in light of a new Storm Prediction Center tool available to help NWS warning forecasters make data-driven decisions regarding tornado warnings.