To assess potential regional climate change impacts on renewable wind and solar energy resources, we analyze three datasets from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) with 25-km horizontal grid spacing. We focus on the Western Interconnection (WECC) electrical grid region due to its climatically diverse footprint, including the western United States and southwestern Canada, and aggressive goals for renewables deployment. Our analysis focuses on locations with existing wind and solar energy infrastructure, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Natural Resources Canada. Using HighResMIP data, we calculate the seasonality of wind and solar energy capacity factors in three different time periods: present-day, mid-century, and end-of-century. Furthermore, we estimate wind and solar drought days during these time periods, both for the entire WECC domain and 6 operational subregions. Finally, we compare results from the different climate model datasets, highlighting how model uncertainty across the WECC could affect infrastructure planning decisions.
This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

