Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in the Western Interconnection Region

To mitigate the climate impacts of fossil fuels, the United States is rapidly transitioning to a more renewables-dependent energy system. However, renewable resources are inherently vulnerable to climate change because they harness energy from the earth system. Thus, regional climate change may impact renewable energy production patterns and site production potential, for example through persistent wind droughts limiting wind energy production or cloud cover blocking solar radiation. Current tools used for infrastructure planning estimate renewable energy production using historical or present-day weather data that are often derived from reanalysis. They therefore neglect potential climate-related changes in renewable resources.

To assess potential regional climate change impacts on renewable wind and solar energy resources, we analyze three datasets from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) with 25-km horizontal grid spacing. We focus on the Western Interconnection (WECC) electrical grid region due to its climatically diverse footprint, including the western United States and southwestern Canada, and aggressive goals for renewables deployment. Our analysis focuses on locations with existing wind and solar energy infrastructure, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Natural Resources Canada. Using HighResMIP data, we calculate the seasonality of wind and solar energy capacity factors in three different time periods: present-day, mid-century, and end-of-century. Furthermore, we estimate wind and solar drought days during these time periods, both for the entire WECC domain and 6 operational subregions. Finally, we compare results from the different climate model datasets, highlighting how model uncertainty across the WECC could affect infrastructure planning decisions.

This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

- Indicates an Award Winner

See more of: Offshore Wind Resource Assessment II & Onshore Wind Resource Assessment
See more of: 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

<< Previous Abstract | Next Abstract