Improving Graphical Communication of Winter Storm Forecasts

Winter storms directly threaten life and property across many portions of the world. Due to the dangerous impacts accompanying them, easy to interpret winter weather graphics are essential for the public to determine their individual risk level and make informed decisions. Confusion with weather graphics and communication has been found within the forecasts of many other phenomena such as convection and tropical cyclones, but there are fewer studies of winter weather’s unique set of communication challenges and the public reception of winter forecast products. By analyzing forecaster and public perceptions of commonly used winter weather communication products, conclusions were drawn about which graphical methods are easiest for general understanding and provide the most useful information. The findings of this project indicate that impact-based forecasting is a simple way to easily communicate winter weather information. While other more traditional methods such as deterministic forecasts still have a place, they are not always the most beneficial or the easiest for the public to understand. Areas where forecaster and public perception differ are also highlighted, as any differences in perception could warrant a change in messaging that forecasters may not currently be aware of.