The Compound Impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization in Addis Ababa: Increased Risk of Flooding and Infectious Disease

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital and largest city, has a population of 5.4 million people and has seen an annual growth rate greater than 4% over the past four years. In the coming decades, the impacts of such rapid urbanization will be compounded by climate change. It is estimated that the vast majority of Addis Ababa’s population lives in informal settlement housing, where they lack basic drainage and sanitation infrastructure, making them vulnerable to heavy rain and flood events, but also to water-borne and vector-borne diseases. In Ethiopia, cholera and other diarrheal diseases are the second leading cause of death in the country, and malaria is the tenth; the spread of both cholera and malaria is linked to heavy rainfall and flooding. In this study, we examine the intersection of climate change, informal settlements, and planned urban development to highlight their compound impact on Addis Ababa’s growing risk of flooding and infectious disease. We find that near-term projections of seasonal precipitation during Kiremt, the summer rainy season, show significant increases throughout the city. Flooding following heavy precipitation events is exacerbated by urban land use change, and is most widespread in the districts of Nifas Silk-Lafto, Bole, and Akaki Kaliti. Flood maps were then compared to maps of informal settlement areas, developed specifically for this project, as well as maps of recent and planned development. Throughout the city, increased rainfall and flooding will create environmental conditions that foster the spread of cholera and malaria, and amplify existing public health vulnerabilities, particularly in informal settlement areas.