Tuesday, 30 January 2024: 9:00 AM
317 (The Baltimore Convention Center)
The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been blending extrapolated radar reflectivity with simulated reflectivity from numerical weather prediction (NWP) for significant convection forecast up to 6 hours (Cheung et al., 2014), but the forecast was spatially limited to radar’s coverage. HKO then explored utilising artificial neural network to convert multispectral imageries of Japan Meteorological Agency Himawari-8 Satellite into radar reflectivity (Woo et al., 2017; Leung et al., 2020). The satellite derived radar reflectivity (SDRR) made blending forecast for large area possible.
Based on trailing 12-months performance, optimal weighting for blending SDRR with NWP reflectivity derived from model forecast rainfall to provide forecast for the next eight hours was identified (Cheung et al., to be published). Inspired by the idea of sensitivity analysis used in statistical modelling (Saltelli, 2002), probability of significant convection based on different weightings of blending SDRR with NWP reflectivity was explored. A range of weightings were used to study how SDRR and NWP reflectivity might contribute to the uncertainty in the blended forecast.
This presentation will describe how to blend a seamless significant convection forecast based on SDRR and NWP reflectivity, and illustrate the two types of significant convection probability forecast developed with their evaluation metrics and relevant case studies. The presentation will also introduce the application of the seamless significant convection forecast and the associated probability forecast for supporting aviation operations, which would be demonstrated in the World Meteorological Organization Aviation Research and Development Project Phase 2 (AvRDP-2).
Reference:
Cheung, P., Li, P.W. and Wong, W.K., 2014, July. Blending of Extrapolated Radar Reflectivity with Simulated Reflectivity from NWP for a Seamless Significant Convection Forecast up to 6 Hours. In 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology.
WOO, W.C., IP, Y.Y., WONG, W.K. and CHAN, N.H., 2017, December. Development of Satellite Reflectivity Retrieval Technique for Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Nowcasting. In Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-4) (pp. 5-7).
Leung, C.Y.Y., Tam, H.C., Chan, W.S. and Fok, H.K., 2020, January. Development of Satellite-based cloud top height and convection nowcasting products in support of SIGMET Coordination in APAC Region. In 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 16 Jan 2020.
Saltelli, A., 2002. Sensitivity analysis for importance assessment. Risk analysis, 22(3), pp.579-590.
Based on trailing 12-months performance, optimal weighting for blending SDRR with NWP reflectivity derived from model forecast rainfall to provide forecast for the next eight hours was identified (Cheung et al., to be published). Inspired by the idea of sensitivity analysis used in statistical modelling (Saltelli, 2002), probability of significant convection based on different weightings of blending SDRR with NWP reflectivity was explored. A range of weightings were used to study how SDRR and NWP reflectivity might contribute to the uncertainty in the blended forecast.
This presentation will describe how to blend a seamless significant convection forecast based on SDRR and NWP reflectivity, and illustrate the two types of significant convection probability forecast developed with their evaluation metrics and relevant case studies. The presentation will also introduce the application of the seamless significant convection forecast and the associated probability forecast for supporting aviation operations, which would be demonstrated in the World Meteorological Organization Aviation Research and Development Project Phase 2 (AvRDP-2).
Reference:
Cheung, P., Li, P.W. and Wong, W.K., 2014, July. Blending of Extrapolated Radar Reflectivity with Simulated Reflectivity from NWP for a Seamless Significant Convection Forecast up to 6 Hours. In 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology.
WOO, W.C., IP, Y.Y., WONG, W.K. and CHAN, N.H., 2017, December. Development of Satellite Reflectivity Retrieval Technique for Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Nowcasting. In Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-4) (pp. 5-7).
Leung, C.Y.Y., Tam, H.C., Chan, W.S. and Fok, H.K., 2020, January. Development of Satellite-based cloud top height and convection nowcasting products in support of SIGMET Coordination in APAC Region. In 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 16 Jan 2020.
Saltelli, A., 2002. Sensitivity analysis for importance assessment. Risk analysis, 22(3), pp.579-590.
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