6TROPICAL Analysis of Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Frequency with the Aid of a Machine Learning Model

Rapid intensification (RI) is a phenomenon in which the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone increase by 30 knots or more within 24 hours. This often leads to the storm reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher), making it challenging for people in the storm's path to prepare or evacuate in time. Forecasting RI is difficult, and improving RI forecasting has been a top priority for operational forecasting centers. Over the past two decades, RI events have become more frequent compared to the 1980s and 1990s, but the factors driving this change are not clear. Su et al. (2020) developed a machine learning model that predicts RI occurrence using various physical parameters that represent storm environmental and internal characteristics. This model reproduces the temporal variation of RI occurrence from the 1980s to the present and allows us to isolate the contribution of each physical parameter to RI occurrence and identify the impact of global warming on the trend of the RI frequency.