A Real-Time Solar Wind Prediction Tool Based on MHD Simulations

Predicting the solar wind properties at various locations in the heliosphere has been one of the most important topics in the solar and space weather community. It is critical to have an accurate solar wind background for space weather applications. Global 3-D numerical first-principles models (e.g., Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model(-Realtime) (AWSoM(-R)), developed at the University of Michigan) have been successful in modeling the solar wind background during different phases of a solar cycle. Currently, there’s no real-time solar wind prediction tool based on a first-principle solar wind model, primary due to two reasons: 1. high computational cost (as compared to empirical or semi-empirical solar wind models); 2. the uncertainty of the input parameters. In this presentation, we show our first attempt to develop a first real-time solar wind prediction tool based on AWSoM(-R) with ensemble simulations and data assimilation. We discuss what parameters are most important in obtaining an accurate solar wind background at Earth’s locations and how to prescribe them.