Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction: A Decision Support Tool for All Seasons

Tropical storms and hurricanes present extreme risks to coastal and inland areas. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office for Coastal Management notes that “[in] 2021, there were 20 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters. The total cost for these events was $145 billion, making this the third most costly year on record, behind 2017 and 2005.” Costs for 2022’s Hurricane Ian have been estimated by NOAA at upwards of $113 billion.

The Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) has recognized and sponsored research into this intersection of weather and transportation systems management and operations (TSMO) for more than 20 years. The trend over that time has been to move from basic road weather research to closer integration of road weather information into TSMO. Research and development of the capabilities now needs to move toward sustaining safety and mobility during extreme weather events. What would TSMO do differently in extreme weather events if it had access to better information about current and future travel conditions?

Traffic operators with views of current data and forecasts would have an integrated view of conditions on the roadway, all across the road network. This would enable them to identify and highlight ongoing and forecast risks at particular locations. That knowledge can be put to work in decision making for planning, event response, and recovery. Detailed knowledge of conditions increases situational awareness for operators and emergency responders during events, and supports enhanced traveler information about conditions ahead and on alternative routes. The total effect would be to reduce safety risks to travelers and sustain mobility as much as possible before, during, and after extreme events.

Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction (IMRCP) is intended to provide data and decision support for these kinds of events. IMRCP gathers traffic and weather data and forecasts. It creates new forecast data for road conditions from those data. It provides tools for “what if” analyses and views of the data from archives and from the near past, to present, to future operational time horizons. It supports transportation system and emergency operations in decision making and after-action reviews.

In this presentation, I will describe the IMRCP system; how it works; how it can be deployed across local, state, or corridors; how it can be used for all seasons (winter, spring, summer, & fall); and the benefits of the system.