The Meteorology of the August 2023 Maui Wildfire

On August 8, 2023 a catastrophic wildfire hit the West Maui town of Lahaina, resulting in over 100 deaths and billions of economic loss. This talks will discuss the meteorology of the Lahaina fire and its predictability. High-resolution numerical simulations will demonstrate that the strong winds associated with this event were produced by a high-amplitude mountain wave bringing powerful downslope winds over the western slopes. This wave structure was associated with unusually strong trade winds and a stable layer near crest level. The potential contribution of Hurricane Dora will be discussed in this talk. The strong wind dry winds resulted in the failure of power infrastructure that led to fire ignition of the extensive dry grasslands upstream of the Lahaina.

Predictability of the event was high, with mesoscale models forecasting the strong, dry downslope winds during the previous days. This talk will also describe the need for better surface observations over Hawaii, allowing better monitoring and understanding of the complex windfields over the region.