Monday, 29 January 2024: 11:15 AM
Key 11 (Hilton Baltimore Inner Harbor)
M. Leila Mays, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Jones, C. Didigu, C. Wiegand, M. M. Kuznetsova, Y. Collado-Vega, PhD, M. Romano, E. Semones, J. E. Barzilla, P. C. Chamberlin, and G. DiBraccio
The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has developed several space weather activities in support of upcoming human exploration missons. Most recently near real-time MAVEN data feeds are availble in a new Mars section of the integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) web application. CCMC has been facilitating real-time forecast verification projects led by the international community to test predictive capabilities before event onset. These "Scoreboards" allow a consistent real-time world-wide ensemble display of operational and research forecasts. Starting in 2018, CCMC developed the SEP Scoreboard in coordination with the Johnson Space Center's Space Radiation Analysis Group and the Moon to Mars. The SEP scoreboard automatically displays and ingests forecasts of SEP onset, duration, peak flux, probability, all-clear, and overall profile. As part of this project, over 11 SEP models have been transitioned from the research community and are now available on the SEP Scoreboard display in real-time.
Flare Scoreboard contains both research and operational probabilistic flare forecasts for the next 24 hours. We receive forecasts in a fully automated manner and display them as a full disk forecast probability time series and table. Additionally there is an interactive solar disk display where the user can click on an active region to view the specific forecasts for the probability of that region flaring. We are currently in the process of renovating the Flare Scoreboard front-end display based on user feedback, in addition to adding more flare models.
The CME Arrival Time Scoreboard captures manually entered forecasts of CME arrival time, error bar, confidence in arrival (hit likelihood), and geomagnetic storms. The CME scoreboard has inspired many retrospective publications of "problem" forecasts and workshop session discussions, and the forecasts have been validated by Riley et al. (2018). In anticipation of upcoming human exploration missions, and our collaborative efforts with the MAVEN team to access near real-time Mars CME arrival observations, we are building a Mars CME Arrival Time Scoreboard.
https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/scoreboards/
https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/tools/iSWA/
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