Identifying and Assessing Solar Energetic Particle Models that Could Support Aviation Operations

Identifying and Assessing Solar Energetic Particle Models that Could Support Aviation Operations

Michael Cook 1 William H. Bauman III1, Matt Fronzak 1, Michael Robinson 1, David Strand 1, and Samantha Carlson2

1MITRE Corporation

7525 Colshire Drive

McLean, VA 22102

2Federal Aviation Administration

800 Independence Ave SW

Washington, DC 20004

As Solar Cycle 25 heads toward Solar Maximum, it continues to outpace the original forecast by the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel. A more active cycle leads to more Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections, which may result in more solar radiation events. Space weather impacts such as Global Positioning System/Global Navigation Satellite System, High Frequency Radio Communication and Radiation all pose a threat to aviation operations. There are several models available that assess and predict Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event onset, duration, and severity. The MITRE Corporation is conducting an in-depth review and assessment of SEP models that may be utilized to improve aviation safety and efficiency during solar radiation events. Through efforts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Department of Defense, and The Met Office, good understanding already exists about which models perform well and the areas of improvements that could make them perform even better. This paper will summarize assessment results that aim to identify which SEP models may have the potential to support real-time aviation operations.

NOTICE

This work was produced for the U.S. Government under Contract 693KA8-22-C-00001 and is subject to Federal Aviation Administration Acquisition Management System Clause 3.5-13, Rights In Data-General, Alt. III and Alt. IV (Oct. 1996).

The contents of this document reflect the views of the author and The MITRE Corporation and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or the Department of Transportation (DOT). Neither the FAA nor the DOT makes any warranty or guarantee, expressed or implied, concerning the content or accuracy of these views.

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