Cycle 25: How's It Going? More Active Than Cycle 24!

We discuss How Solar Cycle 25 is going, and implications for both crewed and uncrewed spacecraft operations for the rest of the cycle.

Our prediction for the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25, with a peak monthly sunspot number of ~185±15 occurring in the second quarter of 2024, is looking pretty good as of the time of writing, and certainly tracking better than the NOAA/NASA consensus panel forecast, with a peak which is both significantly lower and significantly later...

This is not meant to gloat, but rather to address a recurring theme of criticism against not just our model, but *any* cycle forecast, namely "they just got lucky this time," or "that's just one cycle; wait 11 years or so to be sure they're right."

Here, in an attempt to help shift that narrative, we argue that a fixation on solar max is a distraction. It is also a science communication issue, with many millions of dollars at stake for spacecraft operations, and lives on the line as the Artemis program returns to the moon *after* the peak of Cycle 25.

As a first step, we argue that it’s not one data point per cycle. Rather, in addition to (skillful) prediction of for the amplitude and timing of Solar Max, how does a model do with the timing of cycle onset, the timing of flares and other intermediate points, making for several "data points" for chi^2 constraint of models and forecast validation. We shall also discuss the (predictable) differences between odd and even cycles, the implications for the rest of Cycle 25, and even an early look at what Cycle 26 might bring.