Results from the 2023 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment

Since 2013, the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has hosted the annual Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment. FFaIR focuses on the challenges of forecasting extreme precipitation events in the warm season. This year the experiment was extended from four to six weeks, with two weeks held in a hybrid setting, to sample a larger variety of events. Participants in FFaIR use operational and experimental data in realtime to create forecasts mimicking WPC’s experimental Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (ERO), create a hybrid product between a QPF forecast and Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion, and provide subjective evaluations of the experimental data against observations.

The experimental data and products evaluated in FFaIR ranged from deterministic and ensemble models for the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS), spatially aligned mean products, Machine Learning tools, and precipitable water satellite products. Participants were tasked with forecasting activities designed to help analyze the experimental guidance utility and help evaluate less tangible things like conveying rainfall intensity risk and identifying the region and time of maximum rainfall coverage. This presentation will summarize the main findings from the 2023 FFaIR Experiment.