Center of Excellence for Advanced Forecasting of Drag for Enhanced, Sustainable, and Conscientious Space Operations

The proliferation of low Earth orbit (LEO) with replenishable small satellite megaconstellations has shifted the focus from space situational awareness (SSA) to space traffic management (STM). In addition to catalog maintenance under SSA, STM has put focus on enhanced and concerted space operations that includes conjunction assessment and collision avoidance. The continued LEO proliferation will overwhelm the current operational system and make decisions challenging as the operators are likely to receive multiple collision warning messages a day}. For example, in the 6-month period between December 2021 and May 2022, SpaceX Starlink performed nearly 7000 collision avoidance maneuvers.

Forecasting of atmospheric or orbital drag is the largest source of uncertainty and a grand challenge for the space weather community and LEO operations critically affecting PoC calculation and decision making. The Center of Excellence for Advanced Forecasting of Drag for Enhanced, Sustainable, and Conscientious Space Operations will meet the needs of the rapidly expanding LEO satellite operations community by providing a novel framework to serve as a common baseline for critical knowledge on the drag environment, thereby reducing the uncertainty in decision making to avoid catastrophic collisions. Through a coordinated effort between all the invested players, the Center will enable safe and sustainable space operations and improve confidence in the decisions on whether an operator should move their satellite, saving time and money. The research and development under the center will occur in collaboration in NOAA SWPC and leverage an advisory committee made up of commercial and government satellite owner/operators to help define the requirements for effective and efficient integration of the new framework into operations.