Preliminary Results from an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System Using MPAS Model Core at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory

The NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory is developing an experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) using NCAR’s Model Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) model core (WoFS_MPAS). The preliminary version of WoFS_MPAS is designed at ~3-km horizontal cell spacing and 36-member multi-physics configuration with diversity in the planetary boundary layer (YSU, MYJ and MYNN) schemes. The NSSL double-moment scheme is used for microphysics, the RUC for land surface model, and the “convection permitting” physics suite from the MPAS package for other physics option. The system uses NCAR’s DART EAKF software to assimilate MRMS reflectivity, WSR-88D radial velocity, satellite cloud water path, and other conventional observations continuously at 15-min intervals to create the initial conditions.

Several high-impact severe weather events are simulated to evaluate the MPAS-based system for short-term (0-6 h) probabilistic guidance of convective storm hazards. Preliminary results will be summarized and presented at the conference.