'Meteorological Challenges in the New York Bight: Assessing Offshore Wind Generation Vulnerabilities'

The New York Bight (NYB) is widely recognized as a growing hotspot for offshore wind resources, with a substantial increase in wind farms nameplate capacity projected for the coming decade. However, the NYB is also susceptible to weather events significant to offshore wind generation, which can induce disruptions in offshore wind generation. These events include tropical systems, Nor’easters, wind droughts, and wave slamming loads, which is the result of prolonged exposure to plunging and breaking waves (Tu et al. 2017). In fact, it is projected that the region may be more vulnerable to events such as tropical systems in the future.

This study aims to define the characteristics and thresholds of these events, including establishing the duration and intensity thresholds for weather to be deemed ‘extreme’ in relation to offshore wind energy generation. Our work makes use of ERA5-reanalysis (Hersbach et al. 2020), buoy/lidar observations, and National Hurricane Center data to examine hub-height winds, and wind shear within the rotor plane. In addition to providing a deeper understanding of these occurrences, our research examines their seasonal patterns in terms of frequency and duration, as well as changes in the trends of these variables. Forecastability, an aspect pivotal to the mitigation of uncertainties in renewable energy prediction, is also investigated to see if these events have become easier to forecast. Our findings not only present a full overview of the challenges in the NYB's meteorological/offshore wind environment, but also highlights potential adaptive strategies anchored in improved forecasting capabilities.