Sunday, 28 January 2024
Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)
The goal of this research is to investigate the rapid intensification (RI) tropical cyclones
(TCs) in a warming climate scenario within the Atlantic Basin using the Hurricane Analysis and
Forecast System (HAFS) model. According to the IPCC AR6 report, tropical cyclone intensities
globally are projected to increase on average by 1 to 10% according to model projections global
warming. This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive
potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size, although storm size responses to
anthropogenic warming are uncertain. We will develop a climatological database to categorize RI
TCs to identify distributions of RI occurrences within the Atlantic Basin, especially over the
eastern seaboard of the US. Although the prediction of TC intensity change has generally
improved in recent years, TC rapid intensification remains a forecast challenge. Prior studies
have shown that TC intensity variability involves multiscale nonlinear interaction of different
variables including vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, upper ocean temperatures and heat
content, cloud microphysics, air sea interaction, and inner core dynamics and thermodynamics.
All these factors are well known to influence tropical cyclone rapid intensification. The HAFS
model will be used to investigate the connection between rapid intensification with forcing from
the large-scale environment and the subsequent evolution of tropical cyclone structure and
convection. It is essential to understand how the environmental conditions allow different subs
regions (Gulf, Caribbean, Eastern Atlantic) to be conducive for rapid intensification versus
unfavorable for rapid intensification.
(TCs) in a warming climate scenario within the Atlantic Basin using the Hurricane Analysis and
Forecast System (HAFS) model. According to the IPCC AR6 report, tropical cyclone intensities
globally are projected to increase on average by 1 to 10% according to model projections global
warming. This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive
potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size, although storm size responses to
anthropogenic warming are uncertain. We will develop a climatological database to categorize RI
TCs to identify distributions of RI occurrences within the Atlantic Basin, especially over the
eastern seaboard of the US. Although the prediction of TC intensity change has generally
improved in recent years, TC rapid intensification remains a forecast challenge. Prior studies
have shown that TC intensity variability involves multiscale nonlinear interaction of different
variables including vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, upper ocean temperatures and heat
content, cloud microphysics, air sea interaction, and inner core dynamics and thermodynamics.
All these factors are well known to influence tropical cyclone rapid intensification. The HAFS
model will be used to investigate the connection between rapid intensification with forcing from
the large-scale environment and the subsequent evolution of tropical cyclone structure and
convection. It is essential to understand how the environmental conditions allow different subs
regions (Gulf, Caribbean, Eastern Atlantic) to be conducive for rapid intensification versus
unfavorable for rapid intensification.
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