Satellite and Radar-Based Tools for Predicting Regions of Tornadogenesis within Quasi-Linear Convective Systems

Tornadoes that form from quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) are especially difficult to predict and identify, leading to lower situational awareness, more false alarms, and shorter warning lead times. QLCS tornadoes are especially prevalent in the Southeast United States and societal factors within this region, such as large percentages of manufactured homes, make these tornadic QLCSs especially devastating. It is hypothesized that stronger, potentially tornadic circulations tend to be associated with preceding deep updrafts and overshooting convection, whereas weaker, non-severe circulations are not. To address this hypothesis, local storm reports and storm surveys during the second Intensive Observing Period of the 2022 Propagation, Evolution, and Rotation in Linear Storms (PERiLS) field campaign are used to identify low-level tornadic circulations within the QLCS. These circulations are then compared to upper-tropospheric features, such as satellite-detected overshooting tops (OTs) and elevated radar reflectivity cores identified using multi-radar multi-sensor (MRMS) 3D mosaic reflectivity products. Only a fraction of tornadoes within the QLCS exhibit overshooting convection, though all tornadoes are co-located with upper-tropospheric reflectivity cores, often more than 20 minutes prior to tornadogenesis. A numerical simulation of the event is also conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to augment the observational analysis. From our analysis, we find that the existence of deep updrafts is a necessary, though insufficient condition for the formation of tornadoes. Thus, the identification of updraft signatures aloft within geostationary satellite and MRMS data may ultimately help distinguish regions within QLCSs most likely to produce tornadoes and provide additional warning lead time.