Update: Evaluating the Clarity and Effectiveness of the National Hurricane Center's Experimental Probabilistic Intensity Forecast Product

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) previously developed prototype forecast graphics designed to convey TC intensity forecast uncertainty using both probabilistic and deterministic values when landfall is possible. In the first phase of this study, an online survey of Florida residents containing both closed and open-ended questions was conducted along with focus groups consisting of NHC partners in hurricane prone areas. The goal was to learn if any of the prototypes yielded greater comprehension of the forecast uncertainty and/or were more effective at conveying the information than the currently operational forecast track graphic, commonly referred to as the cone of uncertainty (COU). The results suggested that some numerical probability information is helpful in communicating the uncertainty in TC intensity forecasts, but there is a point of diminishing returns, and that there was plenty of room for improvement in the prototype graphics. Based on feedback from focus group members, the original prototypes were modified, and entirely new ones were created. The new and hopefully improved prototypes are currently being tested. The results of those tests will be presented here.