Exploring the Use of Probabilistic Guidance for Aviation Hazards at the 2023 Aviation Weather Testbed Experiment

Effective utilization of probabilistic guidance to communicate hazardous weather information to decision makers is at the forefront of advancing National Weather Service (NWS) products and services. While probabilistic guidance is becoming increasingly popular for communicating weather threats to NWS partners and the public, it is just beginning to be explored for use in aviation planning, and the end-user’s experience and interpretation is not well documented in the literature.

During the 2023 Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT) Spring Experiment, one of the themes explored was the utilization and messaging of probabilistic forecasts for aviation hazards. To further explore how forecasters use probabilistic data to forecast aviation hazards, participants were directed to use real-time probabilistic and deterministic data to create probabilistic impact-based decision support services (IDSS) graphics with messaging geared toward aviation specific hazards. To better understand how aviation users interpret and use probabilistic guidance, the AWT partnered with the FAA’s Aviation Weather Demonstration and Evaluation (AWDE) Services group. The AWDE team provided human factors expertise during focus group activities planned jointly with the concurrent Friends and Partners in Aviation Weather (FPAW) meeting. The focus groups allowed various user types to look at the IDSS graphics produced by the AWT participants and provide feedback on their utility. The feedback received during these focus group activities will be used to help inform future AWC products that utilize probabilistic guidance which will improve the ability of the AWC to better serve the aviation community.

This presentation will discuss the experiment design, highlight the main findings from the forecaster and user perspective, and discuss the potential for future probabilistic products at the Aviation Weather Center.