Advancing Severe Weather Prediction in the Caribbean with WRF-DART: A Case Study of Hurricane Elsa in Jamaica 2021.

This study aims to improve the precision of tropical cyclone forecasting in the Caribbean region, using Hurricane Elsa as a case study. Hurricane Elsa struck Jamaica on July 4, 2021, as a tropical storm producing heavy rains and 70mph winds which led to flooding, landslides and significant damage to infrastructure and agriculture. The research underscores the vulnerabilities exposed by the impacts of Elsa in Jamaica during 2021, accentuating the necessity for more sophisticated forecasting methods. The investigation utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and incorporates observation data assimilation via the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). By assimilating observations from various sources such as weather stations, satellites, and radars, the study aims to improve the precision of initial conditions for the WRF model, resulting in more accurate forecasts. A comparative analysis is conducted to evaluate the impact of data assimilation on the trajectory and intensity predictions of Hurricane Elsa. Preliminary results show that the assimilation of satellite and radar observations enhanced the forecasting accuracy of tropical cyclones within the Caribbean region. This can lead to more effective responses from authorities and emergency services, thereby minimizing risks to both lives and property. The study's findings contribute to advancing tropical cyclone prediction methods and promoting community resilience in the face of severe weather events.