Air Pollution Reduction and Mortality Benefits in India through Policy Intervention

India is one of the most polluted countries in the world. The analysis of current and potential policies' effects on the prevention of future degradation of air quality and the safeguarding of public health is a subject of concern. In this study, we use the WRF-Chem model to examine the impacts of various future emission scenarios on the country in 2040, including adhering to current policies (BASE), adopting the most technically feasible air pollution reduction measures (AP), further implementing climate change policies (APC), agricultural nitrogen controls (APCN), and healthy dietary changes (APCND). In these scenarios, policies become increasingly ambitious. To highlight the impacts of strategies over time, we also get an emission case from the BASE scenario for 2020. PM_2.5-related premature deaths in India in 2020 were estimated to be 1,725,800 (95% CI, 1,448,800–1,984,800). Under the same scenario, the number of deaths would amount to 3,291,100 (95% CI: 2,763,200–3,784,600) in 2040, with a nearly doubled increase in deaths (1,565,300 deaths), which are caused by a 4% increase in PM_2.5 exposure and a 15% increase in the national population. When compared to BASE2040, pollution control strategies in AP, APC, APCN, and APCND scenarios gradually reduced the number of deaths in 2040 by 62%–75% in India. Similar to PM_2.5, under the BASE scenario, mortality attributable to O₃ exposure in India increased from 18,430 (95% CI: 8,820–27,590) in 2020 to 40,130 (95% CI: 19,270–59,970) in 2040 owing to a growing population and degradation of O₃ air quality. In contrast to 2020, the AP, APC, APCN, and APCND scenarios reduced the number of deaths in 2040 by about 90% in India. This is primarily due to the effective reduction of O₃ concentration in the last four scenarios, and the fact that O₃ exposure in many places is below the counterfactual threshold of 32.4 ppb, indicating that O₃ will have no adverse health effects.