NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program - Reflections on the Research to Operations Transition Process

In 2008, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) established the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) to achieve a 20% reduction in forecast error (track and intensity) in 5 years with 50% reduction in 10 years. Over the past 15 years, HFIP provided the unifying organizational infrastructure and funding for NOAA and other agencies to coordinate the research needed to significantly improve guidance for tropical cyclone (TC) track, intensity, and storm-surge forecasts, as well as accelerate the transition of R2O. Over the past 15 years HFIP successfully unified and focused NOAA’s hurricane research and development community to address the key operational forecast guidance needs, developed and improved the operational TC forecast models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS) to provide diversity in guidance to operations, and developed improved operational guidance products to make the best use of the model guidance and observations. HFIP also accelerated the transition of research to operations by developing infrastructure to support the research and development (R&D) activities partnering with NOAA Testbeds to support model and guidance products, increased R&D high-performance computing to conduct testing and evaluation of models and guidance products through annual real-time model demonstrations, dramatically improved the collection and use of aircraft reconnaissance and satellite observations for analysis and model evaluation, and fostered the next generation of NOAA hurricane research and operational personnel. Along the way HFIP had to overcome numerous obstacles and bottlenecks. The lessons learned and best practices developed to overcome these obstacles and bottlenecks will be discussed.