Lithium-Ion Battery Critical Mineral Supply Chains and Trends in the United States

Many countries and companies have committed to adopting policies to bolster the growth of electric vehicles (EVs). In the United States, numerous states have adopted the Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) program, and several automakers have announced electrification of most of their fleet. These policies suggest a significant growth in EV sales in the coming years. In 2022, EV sales accounted for 6% of total light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales in the United States, which was a tipping point indicating future acceleration of adoption, according to Bloomberg. Both China and Europe have larger EV markets than the United States and have larger battery manufacturing efforts. China currently dominates the mining and processing of minerals used in EV batteries. Currently, the most commonly used lithium ion battery chemistries are lithium cobalt oxide (LCO), lithium manganese oxide (LMO), lithium iron phosphate (LFP), lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA), and lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC); graphite is the preferred mineral for anodes. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) deems five minerals in the manufacturing of EV batteries as critical – lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel, and graphite. The United States mines some lithium, cobalt, and nickel but not manganese or graphite. This could be a hurdle for automakers as new Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clauses require a large and increasing percentage of EV battery minerals to be mined or processed in the United States or under a U.S. free trade agreement (FTA) partner or to be recycled in North America, as shown in Figure 1. This report explores the current status of these five critical minerals needed for EV battery chemistry and highlights their recent extraction developments. It focuses on the United States, although many other countries are also increasing efforts to explore their own domestic resources and infrastructure needs. The report also introduces recycling prospects and alternate technology that can reduce critical mineral reliance. While the report outlines the projected element amounts needed to support domestic U.S. EV markets, it does not take into account other industrial uses for these elements (such as use in manufacture of alloys or glass, plating or magnets), nor the demand needed for other lithium ion battery applications (such as stationary energy storage or consumer electronics), which are all large and many increasing. In addition, the report does not compile current or projected global sources of these materials. Thus, the report is intended to simply provide a comparative assessment of the scale of announced U.S. extraction developments, and not a comprehensive supply-demand analysis.