Ensemble-based climate assessment for mining operations in Mexico: a university and private sector partnership

The University of Arizona’s Center for Applied Hydroclimate Sciences (CAHS) is leading the effort to develop partnership between university and mining industry to provide user-driven climate assessment products. Current collaborations with Fresnillo and Industrias Peñoles focus on conducting a scientifically rigorous climate modelling exercise. The goal is to support mining-related engineering, operations, health, safety, environment, and community teams in designing adaptation pathways. Specifically, CAHS generates ensemble-based climate change projection scenarios from a combination of downscaled IPCC projections and statistics-based weather generator. Both statistically and dynamically downscaled climate model products have been recommended by the Mining Association of Canada to support climate risk assessments of mining assets. Service region includes various crucial Fresnillo and Peñoles mining sites throughout Mexico, where several meteorological variables are identified as key indicators for climate risk and critical for the entire mining cycle.

Actionable climate assessments are necessary to understand the risk, vulnerabilities, and adaptation measures to protect mining safety and resilience, and collaborate with neighboring communities. Working with the mining companies’ engineering teams, results are designed to support regulatory requirements, solid capital planning and transition strategy.