Letting communities know that high-impact weather (HIW) is on the horizon and what steps they can do to protect themselves is of utmost importance in achieving a Weather Ready Nation (WRN). Members of the WE, like the NWS and broadcast meteorologists, use social media to send risk communication messages, but report challenges in building threat awareness given that they are competing with amateur weather risk communicators—who may or may not be credible. We term these message sources social mediarologists. Research indicates to protect communities risk communicators should seek message convergence—or make their messages consistent across message sources. However, experimental work is needed. We conducted a between subjects experiment comparing high and low message convergence between the NWS, a broadcast meteorologists, and social mediarologist in predicting people’s message credibility, information consistency perceptions, and willingness to take protective action. We also examine whether these relationships are influenced by people’s relationship with the NWS. Our findings provide insight into the role of strategic risk communication in building a WRN.
Method
We conducted a two level between-subjects experiment where participants were randomly assigned to either a high or low message convergence condition using an Institutional Review Board protocol. See Appendix A.
After reviewing the Twitter feed, participants responded to survey items asking them about message credibility, information consistency, organization-public relationships (OPRs) with the NWS, their intentions to take communicative preparatory actions, and demographics. Measures were reliable.
Participants that had a Twitter account were recruited and compensated by Qualtrics (N = 944). Participants were about 40 years old on average (Range = 18-79), mostly white (i.e.,72.67%), and female (i.e., 55.08%).
Hypotheses and Results
H1: A high level of message convergence leads individuals to perceive messages as more credible than a low level of message convergence (a). However, the influence of message convergence differs depending on the message source (b).
We performed a mixed model ANOVA to test H1 (a, b). The between subjects variable was the experimental condition (i.e., message convergence) and the within subjects variable was the message source (e.g., NWS).
Main effects. There is a significant main effect of message convergence on perceived message credibility, F(1,813) = 4.00, p< .05, η= .01. Messages in the high-level message convergence condition were perceived as more credible (M = 6.62, SD = 2.11) than messages in the low convergence condition (M = 6.35, SD = 2.27).
There is also a significant main effect of message source on perceived message credibility, F(2, 812) = 44.67, p< .001, η = 10. The message from the social mediaorologist (M = 6.13, SD = 2.13) was perceived as less credible (ps < .01) than the messages from the NWS (M = 6.66, SD = 2.22) and the broadcast meteorologist (M = 6.66, SD = 2.25). Messages from the NWS and the broadcast meteorologist were not significantly different.
Interaction. There was a significant interaction effect between message source and the experimental condition, F(2, 1626) = 3.08, p< .05, η= .004. Results show that message convergence matters most for the social mediaorologist (See Figure 1). This message was perceived as more credible in the high message convergence condition (M = 6.36, SD = 2.00) than in the low message convergence condition (M = 5.91, SD = 2.24). This pattern did not emerge for the NWS or broadcast meteorologist.
Figure 1. Interaction between message source and the experimental condition
H2: High message convergence increases perceived message credibility (a), which encourages individuals to take preparatory actions (b).
To test H2(a, b) we used the PROCESS (Model 4), entering the message sources simultaneously.
Results suggest that the effect of message convergence on taking preparatory actions was mediated by perceived message credibility when the message comes from a social mediaorologist, R2 = 19.8%, F(4,756) = 46.72, p< . 001. However, the mediation did not occur for the other two message sources. Hence, results partially support H2(a, b).
H3: High message convergence increases perceived information consistency(a), which encourages individuals to take preparatory actions (b). However, this relationship will be moderated by the perceived OPR with the NWS (c).
To test H3 (a-c) we used PROCESS macro for moderated mediation (Model 14). Results show significant moderated mediation 95%CI = -0.047, -.002). The indirect effects of message convergence on preparatory actions via perceived information consistency differed based on the level of OPRs (B=-.02, SE=.01). This supports the logic presented in H3(a-c).
Information consistency. The results show that the experimental condition predicts information consistency (B=.32, p<.05), supporting H3(a).
Main effects in predicting preparatory action intentions. Results from the main effects indicate that as both perceived information consistency (B=.63, p<.001) and positive OPR increase (B=.83, p<.001), so do people’s intention to take preparatory actions, supporting H3(b).
Interaction effect in predicting preparatory action intentions. We examined the relationship between information consistency and preparatory action intentions, separately for high (1 SD above the mean), average (at the mean), and low levels (1 SD below the mean) OPR levels (See Figure 2). Results show that perceived information consistency was positively associated with communicative preparatory action intentions for the three levels of OPR. However, this effect was weaker at average (B= .24, p < .001) and high levels (B= .15, p< .001) of OPR when compared with low levels of OPR (B= .34, p < .001), supporting H3(c).
Figure 2. Interaction between perceived information consistency and OPR.
Implications
Our findings suggest that message consistency between weather sources matters as perceived information consistency between sources increased preparatory-action intentions. Additionally. results indicate that WE members such as the NWS should continue to build relationships with community as the pay dividends is preparatory-action intentions as those with strong relationships with the NWS.
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