Building a Modeling Community

As threats from a changing climate continue to rise, so does our Nation’s need for accurate and timely ocean predictions to protect our ecosystems, economy, national security, and lives and livelihoods. No single sphere within our planet’s systems works independent of the others, therefore, to make accurate predictions, an earth system approach must be taken. This is an immense undertaking, but one that NOAA does not take on alone. NOAA’s Unified Forecast System (UFS) is a coupled, comprehensive Earth modeling system, highlighting the interdependence between government and non-government contributions. This community based approach leverages whole-of-society expertise by engaging academic, private, and government sectors to accomplish modeling goals as effectively and efficiently as possible. Building, growing, and sustaining such a modeling community is a challenge, one that is not unique to the UFS. The UFS was born in weather, but the National Ocean Service (NOS) and the coastal modeling community have a lot to contribute. NOS is working to build a modeling community and portfolio that encompasses all of the line office missions; from navigation to harmful algae, surge to spill response, saltwater to freshwater. In effort to build a coastal modeling community, a Community Modeling Workshop was held, a Coastal Coupling Community of Practice was formed, a NOS Modeling Vision and Strategy were published. Now it’s time to take all of the information collected from the modeling community and take action. The NOS Modeling Implementation Plan is an ambitious and motivated action plan to bring the promises of the Strategy and the Vision to fruition. In this presentation we will discuss the NOS plan for building and sustaining a modeling community and infrastructure to accelerate the R2O2R process and our goal to bring ocean forecasts and warnings to coastal communities in partnership with the Weather Service.