Modeling Wildfire Progression and Simulating Satellite Observations

As a purpose-built instrument, the proposed Fire Urgency Estimator on Geostationary Orbit (FUEGO) aims to provide a large step up in spatial and temporal performance for fire detection from geostationary orbit. As development of FUEGO proceeds, progress has been made on creating realistic models of fires and generating accurate simulations of the data produced by simulated instruments. By utilizing records of 911 calls reporting fire progress, and fire fronts estimated from radar-derived plume data, the FUEGO team has utilized WRF-FIRE to simulate the spread of the Camp Fire under diverse fire spread and power scenarios. Once high quality, high-resolution models of fires are generated, the data is then fed into instrument simulators for FUEGO, the GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), and other instruments to generate proxy data that are as accurate as possible so that the actual capabilities of the different platforms can be better understood. The end-to-end observation simulation system was developed by the FUEGO team to explore the instrument design trade space and to compare fire detection and characterization performance between platforms. The system takes into account the telescope parameters, including mirror and lens diameter and focal length, to define light acceptance and point spread function at the focal plane. It also treats sensor performance, including charge capacity, spectral response, and noise characteristics, including noise associated with optical component emissivities that may be sensed by the detectors. Scene atmosphere and surface variations are also included, as is remapping. As development of these models progresses, a better understanding of the capabilities of the proposed FUEGO instrument and the existing platforms can be gained. That understanding is necessary to support the investment in a dedicated geostationary fire detection platform.