How would the future SST warming pattern change the tropical cyclone distribution?

The future projection of surface warming remains to be uncertain in both global and regional scale across climate models. In this study, we investigate the response of the tropical cyclone (TC) frequency to the different CO2-induced sea surface temperature (SST) warming pattern change. We force two TC-permitting model, HIRAM and AM2.5, with the SST warming patterns from the idealized abrupt-4xCO2 experiment coming from a suite of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We first find that the SST warming pattern modulates the hydrological cycle and can explain the CMIP6 model spread of the shift of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Also, the results indicate that the response of the regional TC frequency is corresponding to the SST warming pattern. It implies that, in addition to global-mean warming, the future SST warming pattern would also impact the TC distribution.