Weather and the Economy: Reconsidering our Metrics for Success

By the summer of 2023, the United States had already experienced 15 billion-dollar weather-related disasters, reaching that annual milestone at a record pace. When we think of costly weather disasters, it may conjure an image of destructive hurricanes- and those events can cause extensive damage. However, there is an increasing range of weather types causing billions of dollars in economic impacts. For instance, from 1980 to 2023, there were 180 severe thunderstorm events causing more than a billion dollars in damage each. With increasing frequency and strength of hurricanes, lengthened fire weather seasons, a period of solar maximum, and other meteorological, oceanographic, and atmospheric patterns, this trajectory is likely to climb.

This talk will delve into economic impacts across several weather types, both near-term and long-term, and discuss forecast challenges as well as mitigation strategies. It will explore the role of the broader weather, water, and climate enterprise in understanding and measuring economic impact, and in driving down impacts of disasters. It will also discuss the role of social, behavioral, and economic sciences in either mitigating or exacerbating economic impacts, and consider an array of strategies to prioritize reductions in economic and societal impacts. Finally, it will consider the performance metrics currently used for success in forecasting, and whether they are out of step with the most significant impacts.