Understanding the Consumer Awareness of Increasing Coffee Prices in Correspondence with Extreme El Nino Southern Oscillation Events

Climate change is potentially causing increases in the frequency and intensity of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases of La Nina and El Nino. The increased frequency of intense ENSO La Nina and El Nino events are contributing to harsher growing conditions for coffee farmers, which is negatively affecting consumers who are paying higher costs for the product. This paper investigates the consumer’s awareness of the correlation between extreme ENSO events and rising coffee prices. We looked at coffee prices during the 2020-2023 La Nina event and found the price of coffee increased from $1.34/lb to $2.01/lb between 2020 and 2023. A contributing factor to this price increase can potentially be attributed to the harsher growing conditions inflicted on farmers from the ongoing La Nina at the time.

For a period of three weeks, consumers were asked to voluntarily fill out an anonymous google survey consisting of questions such as, “do you drink coffee”, “where do you consume coffee”, and “have you noticed an increase in the price of coffee”. The participants of the survey were then allowed to give a variety of responses to a question that asked them what they believed was causing a rise in coffee prices, including options such as “who knows”, “climate change”, “other policy.”

Understanding consumer awareness on the correlation between the price of coffee and harsher growing conditions caused by an increasing frequency of extreme ENSO events could potentially indicate if there is a broader lack of awareness on how climate effects the prices of everyday consumer goods.