A Comparison of Environments for Severe and Non-Severe Pulse Thunderstorms Across The Missouri Ozarks

Pulse-type thunderstorms develop within environments characterized by moderate to strong instability and weak wind shear. This short-lived storm type can produce microbursts and large hail in specific atmospheric environments. Meteorologists struggle to forecast severe pulse thunderstorms given a lack of understanding of these atmospheric subtleties. This research attempts to distinguish differences between severe and non-severe pulse thunderstorm environments. Data was initially extrapolated from the National Centers for Environmental Information Severe Weather Data Inventory to gather potential thunderstorm days across central and southern Missouri from June 15-August 31 of 2011-2022. Cases were then compared to the Storm Events Database to separate potential severe and non-severe events. Various checks were applied to ensure that thunderstorms were of the pulse-type variety. Proximity RAP/RUC initialization soundings were then examined for each potential case to ensure that data represented the storm environment as accurately as possible. A total of 241 non-severe and 41 severe cases were then tested with over 60 possible discriminatory predictors. The top five parameters with the highest predictive skill were the vertical totals index, 850-500 hPa lapse rate, Total Totals index, 850 hPa temperature, and 925 hPa temperature. An equation utilizing top predictors was then developed and programmed into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System at the Springfield office for use by forecasters. This index will improve forecaster's skill in predicting pulse severe thunderstorm events across the Missouri Ozarks. Additional coordination is planned with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to produce the product on their mesoanalysis page.