Investigating the Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis through a Comparison of African Easterly Wave Seasons

African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are the primary initial disturbance that precedes tropical cyclone (TC) development (“genesis”) in the Atlantic basin. Environmental conditions along with the structure and behavior of AEWs are important in determining the favorability of an AEW to undergo TC genesis. Furthermore, recent work has suggested that the frequency of AEWs in a season may not be indicative of the frequency of TC genesis. More work is needed to identify trends in AEW characteristics in the context of large-scale environmental changes and TC genesis. Here we analyze the attributes of AEWs during the 2022 hurricane season in comparison to other individual seasons, groupings of AEW seasons, and the overall AEW climatology. ERA5 data is used to quantify characteristics of AEW structure such as relative vorticity and specific humidity. Multiple groupings of years of interest are compared to provide the fullest picture possible on the relationship between AEWs and cyclogenesis. Examples of potential groupings are the overall climatology of AEWs from 1979-2022, El Niño years, La Niña years, and years where there was anomalously high TC genesis in the Main Development Region. It is expected that this analysis will better illuminate the role of AEW vertical structure in the TC genesis process. These results could ultimately help better quantify the predictability of TC genesis from AEWs.