A Numerical Case Study of IOP2 During Project LEE Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Lake-effect storms can be a challenge to forecast and can quickly produce extremely hazardous conditions over densely populated areas. Lightning is associated with the most intense lake-effect storms and these events tend to occur downwind of the Great Lakes of Erie and Ontario. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to thoroughly analyze the impressive lake-effect storm structure of the second Intensive Observation Period (IOP) of the Lake-Effect Electrification (LEE) project 18-19 November 2022 east of Lake Ontario near the Tug Hill Plateau.

The convection-permitting (3 km horizontal resolution inner nest) WRF simulations were driven by the ERA5 reanalysis data. Project sounding and NEXRAD radar data from the event are used to verify the simulated results. Additionally, the simulated Lightning Potential Index (LPI) is used to assess the location and likelihood of lake-effect lightning. The LPI is compared with the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data of the observed lightning flashes and is shown to be a capable predictor of lake-effect lightning.