Improving Forecasting Rules For Nantucket, MA

Nantucket, an island situated off the coast of Cape Cod in Massachusetts, poses a considerable challenge for weather forecasting. The intricacies of its weather patterns and model complexities, including guidance issues, difficulties in parameterizing low-level moisture, the NAAM's high bias on the dew point, variable weather patterns, and maritime influence, make accurate forecasting a demanding task. The significance of comprehending and forecasting weather in this region is amplified by the presence of Nantucket Regional Airport-ACK, a public airport crucial for commercial flights. Factors such as visibility and ceiling heights around Nantucket Regional Airport are particularly critical. These parameters influence communication with commercial flights, especially those operating under visual flight rules and IFR flight rules with reduced visibility. This project aims to enhance the forecasting process for Nantucket by delving into past climatological data specific to the island. The collected data undergoes analysis and transformation into graphics to effectively depict historical trends. This understanding of past trends will serve as a valuable guide for forecasters, enabling them to create more comprehensive and accurate forecasts for the future. This project detailing the methods employed to collect data and identify relevant variables, followed by an exploration of observed trends resulting from the comparison of these variables. Additionally, practical "rules of thumb" are created to aid forecasters when formulating predictions under IFR conditions and below. Through this systematic approach, the project aims to streamline the forecasting process for Nantucket, contributing to more informed and reliable weather predictions for the region.