Predicting Laptev Sea Ice Concentration via Deep Neural Networks

Observation of sea ice activity in the Arctic Ocean is limited due to its remote environment; therefore, as Arctic conditions change due to amplified warming and sea ice retreat new methods of sea ice prediction is necessary to forecast sea ice concentration (ESOTC, 2020). Understanding the flux of Arctic Sea ice is critical as it plays a practical role in transportation, resource extraction, and national security (N. et al., 2022). Annual ice retreat during summer melt and the progression of autumn freeze-up in the Laptev Sea contribute greatly to arctic sea ice spatial variability (Eicken et al., 1997). Therefore, focusing on the Laptev Sea is of great importance for modeling sea ice dynamics.

In this ongoing study, we examine polar weather research and forecasting reanalysis data in conjunction with surface data. Through statistical analysis, we derive factors that significantly impact sea ice deviation and subsequently establish correlations with those defined factors, which are then plotted and used to train a deep neural network (DNN). Correlated data is input into a DNN in order to develop projections of sea ice concentration throughout annual growth cycles between the years 2000 and 2016.

The role of DNNs in climate and polar research is still being established; thus, it is critical to pursue this approach to sea ice concentration prediction. The intention of this research is to develop a DNN foundation for sea ice prediction that can be applied to additional Arctic and Antarctic regions. The resulting Laptev DNN predictions will eventually undergo comparative analysis against actual sea ice data in order to determine sea ice variable correlations and validate the accuracy of the study’s DNN predictions.

References:

Eicken, H., et al. “Sea-Ice Processes in the Laptev Sea and Their Importance for Sediment Export.” Continental Shelf Research, vol. 17, no. 2, Feb. 1997, pp. 205–233, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0278-4343(96)00024-6. Accessed 08 Sept. 2023.

“European State of the Climate 2020 | Copernicus.” Copernicus.eu, 2020, climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2020. Accessed 08 Sept. 2023.

N., Meier, W., et al. Sea Ice. 2022, repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/48539, https://doi.org/10.25923/xyp2-vz45. Accessed 09 Sept. 2023.