Spatial Analysis on the Potential Relationship of Ozone and Surface Conditions in Antarctica

Spatial Analysis on the Potential Relationship of Ozone and Surface Conditions in Antarctica

Adams, Kolby1 , Lail, Sage2, Miles, Leonard3,Salesky, Scott P.h.D4, 1Undergraduate (kolby.w.Adams-1@ou.edu), 2Undergraduate (Sage.c.Lail-1@ou.edu), 3Undergraduate (Miles.Leonard@ou.edu) 4Associate Professor (Salesky@ou.edu).

Introduction: The anthropogenic influence of the ozone hole over the South Pole has led to unique atmospheric conditions on the continent of Antarctica. The ozone hole is variable, but can cover nearly all of Antarctica and large portions of the Southern Ocean. Due to the human use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), the natural depletion of the ozone layer during Austral Spring has been exacerbated, leading to dangerously low levels. Prior to human influence, the Antarctic had an average concentration of 250 Dobsons versus the current value of 100 Dobsons. While the use of CFCs has since been banned in most of the developed world, the “healing” of the ozone layer will take a substantial amount of time. What are the unseen effects of a weakened ozone layer on Antarctica? Is there a significant effect on weather and sea ice?

Methods: To answer these questions, we conducted an extensive literature review to find resources relating ozone to changes in temperature, sea ice, and/or weather in Antarctica. Additional background sources were sought out to set a baseline of understanding of seasonal weather differences and methods of tracking meteorological conditions in Antarctica. With these modeling systems, we can demonstrate the differences, or lack thereof, of current Antarctic climate and weather phenomena.

Results: The spatial distribution and density of observations remains less than optimal, especially when compared to every other continent. Despite their relative scarcity , ground-based observations remain the most reliable form of information on surface weather conditions. One study found that the breakup time of the southern stratospheric polar vortex (SSPV) was highly correlated to ozone depletion [3]. A later study, also suggesting that weakening events of the SSPV display a relationship with ozone concentration, found that these weakening SSPV events cause statistically significant cooling over the Antarctic peninsula region and warming over the rest of Antarctica, lasting approximately three months [1]. Through the utilization of visual observations at 10 stations in conjunction with ERA5 data, a series of CMIP6 global climate model simulations found a general warming trend along with an increase in rainfall across the continent. However, these results are limited by the poor spatial distribution and density of observations, with 9 of the 10 stations considered located on the coast [2].

Conclusion: These results imply that, while there does appear to be an impact at the surface in Antarctica due to ozone depletion, current research on climate change in Antarctica is not yet sufficient to fully understand this relationship. Conflicting and sparse research creates large gaps in data that would otherwise help us understand the long term effects of a reduced ozone hole on precipitation, temperature, and sea ice presence. Further funding towards mapping weather observations, especially further inland, would fill in the gaps that are currently present.

Acknowledgements: Thank you to Dr. Scott Salesky for your advice and aid throughout the research process. Another thank you to Dr. Jens Redemann of the University of Oklahoma for your insight and guidance.

References:

[1] Kwon, H., Choi, H., Kim, B.-M., Kim, S.-W., and Kim, S.-J., 2020: Recent weakening of the southern stratospheric polar vortex and its impact on the surface climate over Antarctica. Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 094072, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9d3d.

[2] Vignon, É., Roussel, M.-L., Gorodetskaya, I.V., Genthon, C., and Berne, A., 2021: Present and Future Rainfall in Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL092281, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092281.

[3] Zhang, Y., Li, J., and Zhou, L., 2017: The Relationship between Polar Vortex and Ozone Depletion in the Antarctic Stratosphere during the Period 1979–2016. Adv. Meteor., 2017, e3078079, https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/3078079.