Analyzing False-Alarm Factors for Tornado Warnings in Florida and New Mexico

In an effort to determine differences between tornadic signatures on radar between confirmed tornado warnings and false-alarm tornado warnings, selected warnings from the NWS Tallahassee, FL CWA and the NWS Albuquerque, NM CWA were analyzed in this study. Such warnings, all from the period of 2013-2023, were investigated using radar data obtained from NCEI’s historical database and using the Storm Prediction Center’s archive of mesoanalysis data to gain an understanding of the surrounding environment of each warning. Certain features, including Vrot, the radar beam height at the location of the circulation, the diameter of the circulation, the diffuse or tight nature of the circulation, and mesoscale indices such as STP were examined for each tornado warning. Then, each variable was identified across the set of case studies to determine which variables were both present/amplified in confirmed tornado warnings and lacking in false-alarm tornado warnings. Additionally, variables that were absent in confirmed tornado warnings but present in false-alarm tornado warnings were also analyzed. By conducting such an investigation in two diverse geographic regions that present different challenges with radar operations, the aim was to identify features that may be able to diagnose a false-alarm tornado warning situation before such a warning is issued.