Use of the AOML Hurricane Model Viewer for Understanding Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Forecasts
Cameron Bennett
NOAA’s Misson: Science, Service, and Stewardship
Lewis J. Gramer & Tamara Battle
Segayle Thompson - Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan - Aaron Pratt - Christopher Spells - Krishna Kumar
OAR-WPO & AOML
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Hurricanes have caused over $1 trillion in damage and have taken nearly 6900 lives in the US between 1980 and 2023. These tropical weather systems are very hard to predict because the atmosphere and ocean are changing all the time at a range of spatial scales. Meteorologists working within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) use forecast models to inform and protect people around the world. More specifically, NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) uses different models to forecast the storm's track, intensity, and sea-to-atmosphere interactions. These include global (e.g., European model, NOAA’s Global Forecast System) and high-resolution hurricane models, including the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) jointly developed by NWS/EMC and AOML. AOML/HRD in particular completed real-time experiments with the HAFS-B configuration spanning the years 2020-2022 Using AOML’s Hurricane Model Viewer (https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/viewer/), I will be identifying cases in which the HAFS-B forecast model was unable to correctly predict the storm's intensification and provide feedback on why the storm strengthened or weakened more than the forecast. Importantly, the goal of this research is to help improve NOAA forecasting, so more lives can be saved and more property protected. Some preliminary results show that air-to-sea interaction is the reason for rapid storm intensification change; others may indicate the temperature of the ocean has a significant effect on a storm's intensification.
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