MHD Modeling and Forecasting CMEs and Heliosphere Disturbances with the Space Weather Modeling Framework.

We examine CME simulation results derived from the Eruptive Event Generator Gibson-Low EEGGL, which is currently being used for our uncertainty quantification studies. The EEGGL tool allows us to simulate observed CME events by automatically determining parameters for the analytical Gibson & Low (GL) flux rope model with data from synoptic magnetograms and CME coronagraph observations. The CME simulations are carried out with the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), which allows us to simulate the propagation of ICMEs from the low corona through the solar wind to 1 AU. We compare model predictions of the spatial structure and time-evolution of heliospheric disturbances to in situ observations at 1AU. Attention is given to the ability of the simulations to reproduce the observed plasma mass density, velocity, and magnetic fields and arrival time at Earth. We probe the validity and capability of the numerical models and question their potential to forecast solar wind conditions and ICME disturbances with observations from Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter.