INVITED KEYNOTE: Climate Linked Economics of Water Management in the West. (Invited Presentation)

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) that impact the U.S. West Coast are long narrow bands of concentrated water vapor transport that form over the Pacific Ocean. They are responsible for up to half of the annual precipitation in California, 94 percent of all flood damages totaling $620 million annually, and individually may influence catastrophe such as the $1.1 billion in damages to the Lake Oroville Spillway in February 2017. Better AR forecast accuracy and lead time enhances resilience to drought and flood, especially as climate change results in more intense ARs.

Knowing when and where ARs will hit, and how much precipitation they’ll produce, is key to Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO), a flexible water management approach that uses forecasts to help water managers selectively retain or release water from reservoirs for increased resilience to droughts and floods. FIRO is a research and operations partnership where practitioners help design and implement FIRO to maximize its potential.

Over the past decade, AR research has led to important scientific breakthroughs that make FIRO possible. For example, model results and model-informed practices at Lake Mendocino in California indicate that FIRO can increase median storage by >30%--enough for >30,000 households -- over conventional reservoir operations while maintaining water supply, mitigating flood risk, and providing healthy ecosystems.