Subseasonal and Seasonal Prediction: Current Capabilities and Future Directions

I will present an overview of our current capabilities in subseasonal and seasonal prediction. This will include results from the Subseasonal Consortium (SubC, previously SubX), a subseasonal multi-model ensemble prediction system that has been used for research and real-time predictions for 7+ years and the North American Multi-model Ensemble, a seasonal multi-model ensemble prediction system that has been used for research and real-time predictions for more than a decade. Next, I will present a summary of what we have learned about subseasonal and seasonal prediction and predictability from these projects. This will include a discussion of sources of predictability and forecasts of opportunity as well as engaging with users to support specific applications. Finally, I will discuss future directions for advancing subseasonal and seasonal predictions.