Session 13 Space Weather Drivers: Advances in Space Weather Research and Modeling

Thursday, 1 February 2024: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
Key 11 (Hilton Baltimore Inner Harbor)
Host: 21st Conference on Space Weather
Cochairs:
Eric Adamson, NOAA, SWPC, Boulder, CO and Sara Housseal, Millersville Univ., Meteorology, Millersville, PA

Forecasting space weather events present the ultimate challenge to a space physics model. A forecasting model should satisfy not only observational constraints such as the onset time, severity, and duration of actual events but also the practical requirement of timeliness, accuracy, and robustness under realistic conditions. Modern space weather forecasters and users rely on a wide variety of forecast methods, encompassing simple nonlinear regressions, complex empirical (assimilative) algorithms, physical/theoretical models, and hybrid methods. For a thorough understanding of the mechanisms of solar influences on Earth, models must relate remote sensing data and the driving influences of solar events on the magnetosphere/ionosphere in terms of physical mechanisms. This session aims to bring together experts in different disciplines to assess the state of space weather modeling and forecasting, their limitations, and the new ideas/innovations necessary to move forward

Papers:
8:30 AM
13.1
First Results on Energizing Coronal Mass Ejections Using the STITCH Method in the Space Weather Modeling Framework.
Joel Dahlin, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and S. K. Antiochos, G. Toth, T. I. Gombosi, B. van der Holst, and W. B. Manchester

8:45 AM
13.2
Integrating Machine Learning with MHD modeling and Heliospheric Imaging for Improved CME Arrival Time Predictions
Talwinder Singh, The Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and N. Pogorelov and S. Raza

9:00 AM
13.3
Assessing Upper Atmosphere Models for Navigating a Crowded LEO Environment
Shaylah M Mutschler, Space Environment Technologies, Pacific Palisades, CA; and E. Sutton, S. Bruinsma, W. K. Tobiska, M. Pilinski, D. J. Knipp, B. diLorenzo, C. Siemes, and S. Casali

9:15 AM
13.4
Development of an Ensemble Data Assimilation System with Flexible Parallelism, with Applications to the Ionosphere
John Haiducek, NRL, Washington, DC; and D. Hodyss, D. D. Kuhl, and D. R. Allen

Handout (1.5 MB)

9:30 AM
13.5
Advances in NAIRAS Atmospheric and Space Radiation Nowcast and Forecast
Christopher J. Mertens, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA; and G. Gronoff, D. Phoenix, Y. Zheng, I. Jun, J. Minow, and M. Nunez

9:45 AM
13.6
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner