Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S)

Monday, 29 January 2024: 3:00 PM-4:30 PM
Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)
Host: 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Chair:
Mark Olsen, NOAA/OAR/OWAQ, Silver Spring, MD
Cochairs:
Christine Bassett, University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Springfield, OR; Do-Hyuk (D. K.) Kang, NASA, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD and Jessie C. Carman, OAR, WPO, Silver Spring, MD

In recent years, we have seen increasing demands for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts and products in hydrologic, transportation, agriculture, fisheries and other sectors that require specific information at different times to meet decision makers’ needs. As our S2S forecast systems are developing, we need to ensure that we are appropriately targeting the water resources, agriculture, fisheries, energy and defense needs of users. National Research Council studies and a recent survey by the Federal agencies have attempted to highlight needs for S2S prediction, yet a clear path to success remains elusive. A joint Federal effort to address S2S prediction has been proposed if a tractable path can be described.

This poster session covers a a three part S2S-focused series that highlights (1) stakeholder needs and priorities for subseasonal (weeks) to seasonal (up to two years) forecast products and information, (2) S2S prediction/predictability and (3) S2S forecast system developments.

Papers:
210
Impacts of Different Warm-Layer, Cool-Skin Parameterizations on Seasonal-Length Coupled UFS Simulations
Benjamin W. Green, NOAA/OAR/Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun and R. Bleck

211
Seasonal United Forecast System Performance with a Focus on El Niño
Elias P Flicker, Saint Cloud State University, Big Lake, MN; and B. W. Green and S. Sun

212
Evaluation of March- and May-initialized Seasonal Forecasts of Buildup Index for the Alaska Fire Season
Cecilia Borries-Strigle, Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK; and U. S. Bhatt, P. Bieniek, E. Stevens, H. Strader, A. York, and R. Ziel

213
Improving U.S. Seasonal Climate Prediction by CWRF Downscaling from NOAA Operational Forecasts with Bias Correction
Sanghoon Shin, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and C. Sun and X. Z. Liang

214
Predictive Skill and Bias of Synoptic Variables during 14-day Extreme Precipitation Periods in S2S Models
Melanie A. Schroers, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. R. Martin

215
Extended-range Predictability of Early December 2021 Severe Weather Events from the operational Global Ensemble Forecast System
Kimberly A. Hoogewind, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), Norman, OK; and T. J. Galarneau, V. A. Gensini, PhD, CCM, A. J. Clark, and A. C. Winters

216
Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts of Summer Heatwaves in US and Europe in GEOS5-S2Sv3
Zhao Li, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and A. Molod

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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