J3 Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) III: Predictions and Predictability & Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) III: S2S Model Developments and Innovations

Monday, 29 January 2024: 1:45 PM-3:00 PM
Holiday 6 (Hilton Baltimore Inner Harbor)
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; and the Forum on Climate Linked Economics )
Chair:
Mark Olsen, NOAA/OAR/OWAQ, Silver Spring, MD
Cochairs:
Jessie C. Carman, OAR, WPO, Silver Spring, MD; Andrew W. Robertson, CPC, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD; Christine Bassett, University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Springfield, OR and Do-Hyuk (D. K.) Kang, NASA, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

There has been significant progress in understanding and predicting the global earth system to extended ranges beyond synoptic scales.  We understand the need to replicate physical phenomena related to tropical convection, MJO, monsoons, and their teleconnections with midlatitude weather and climate in the global earth system models.  However, despite progress there is still a pressing need to further improve subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions, and to better understand the underlying predictability and its temporal modulation. .

This second session in a three part S2S-focused series invites presentations addressing both previous and ongoing research investigating the sources of predictability, and propagation of forecast errors and systematic earth system model biases that appear early in the forecasts, with the goal of tracing these errors both to their impacts on prediction, and backward to their causes, to support implementing S2S prediction improvements with temporal ranges between 2 weeks to 2 years. Particular applications include but are not limited to S2S prediction of precipitation, extreme temperatures, severe weather outlooks, drought, atmospheric rivers and the conditions that are thought to drive these phenomena. While this session focuses on predictions and predictability, Parts 1 and 3 of this 3-part S2S-focused series highlight stakeholder needs and S2S model development, respectively.

Papers:
2:00 PM
J3.2
Extended Range Assessment of Forecast Skill for Severe Convective Storm Environments in GEFSv12 Reforecasts
Andrew Berrington, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark and K. A. Hoogewind

2:15 PM
J3.3
NOAA’s Seasonal Forecast System (SFS) Development Plan: A Community Modeling Approach to Increase S2S Forecast Skill
Yan Xue, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; NOAA/NWS/Office of Science and Technology Integration, Silver Spring, MD; and W. Komaromi, K. Garrett, J. C. Carman, A. Mehra, P. Pegion, and N. P. Barton

2:30 PM
J3.4
2:45 PM
J3.5
Investigating SST Bias in the UFS Seasonal Forecast
Shan Sun, NOAA/OAR/GSL, Boulder, CO; and R. Bleck, B. W. Green, B. Fu, P. Pegion, W. Wang, and A. Kumar

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner