Session 08 Advances in R2O & O2R with Analysis and Forecasting Systems, Technologies, and Methodologies, Linking between Solutions and Requirements to Address Field’s Forecasting Needs


Description:

Continuing the last year’s expanded scope to span all the temporal ranges of the weather forecasting for this session topic, we’re soliciting abstracts to discuss any aspects of analysis and forecasting - from analysis, nowcasting, short-term forecasting to extended-range weather forecasting, and even to 2-year forecasting in climate range.

The primary goal of this session is to discuss all aspects of R2O (Research to Operation) and O2R (Operation to Research) of weather forecasting. The goal includes discussion of modeling systems, forecasting techniques or methodologies with focus on linking the field forecasters’ needs on the tools, represented as “requirements” linked to the “solutions” that developers provide to meet the needs.

The Analysis and Nowcast Branch of the Analyze, Forecast, and Support Office, a.k.a. AFS11 was created to better address the fields’ needs on analysis and forecasting tools by systematically developing “requirements” to help improve the “solutions”, addressing field’s needs on the tools. [Note the branch name is being changed to “Analysis and Forecast Branch” to reflect the expanded scope.]

We would like to invite any of you who work on solutions, requirements, or policies to share your progress in this topic with the community by presenting your ideas, plans and/or results on any aspect of analysis and forecasting, including modeling, evaluation, forecasting and warning. Your input will be used to better identify and resolve systematic issues present in the tools, and try to link research and operations to forecasters’ needs in terms of requirements in order to better serve the public with improved weather analyses and forecasts.

For questions or suggestions, please contact YJ Kim (young-joon.kim@noaa.gov). Thank you.


Papers:
Expansion of NWS AFS Office’s Requirement Development Mission for Analysis and Forecasting Tools from Regional Systems to Global Systems and from Modeling to Non-Modeling Tools
Young-Joon Kim, NOAA/NWS/AFS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. S. Latto, D. J. Pearson, B. D. Sipprell, N. M. Strauss, M. B. Natoli, E. M. Schaefer, and M. A. Tew

Analysis of Persistent Bias and Suggested Improvements in Forecasting Temperatures Patterns over Canaan Valley in West Virginia with the National Blend of Models (NBM)
Ethan Michael Schaefer, NWS/AFS, Silver Spring, MD; Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. J. Kim, M. A. Tew, R. Leffler, J. B. Settelmaier, M. Pondeca, and M. T. Morris

Evaluation of the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System for Refining Requirements
David J Pearson, NWS, Valley, NE; and Y. J. Kim, B. D. Sipprell, N. M. Strauss, A. S. Latto, F. M. Kredensor, and M. A. Tew

Preliminary Reporting on the Case Evaluation of Forecasters' Needs for the Global Forecast System (GFS)
Andrew S Latto, NOAA/NWS/AFS, Silver Spring, MD; and Y. J. Kim, M. B. Natoli, and E. M. Schaefer

Verification of NOAA/NWS/SPC 4-hourly Probabilistic Severe Timing Guidance
Grant Christian Talkington, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and C. Karstens, I. L. Jirak, N. A. Dahl, A. Wade, A. L. Brannan, A. D. Lyons, and J. Grams

Developing Dry Thunderstorm Verification Tools to Improve Fire Weather Forecasting at NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center
Phoebe Lin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. S. Elliott, D. R. Harrison, E. S. Bentley, I. L. Jirak, J. Vancil, K. Halbert, and P. T. Marsh

A Review of the Warning Methodology for the Active 2022 North American Monsoon by NWS Phoenix, Arizona
Sean Benedict, NWS, Tempe, AZ; and J. Macfarlane, J. Estupinan, and R. Worley

Upgrades to the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index
Joshua Kastman, NCEP, College Park, MD; and J. A. Nelson Jr. and D. Tobin

Evaluation and comparison of RRFS-like simulations using GEFS IC perturbations, a real-time RRFS prototype with EnKF perturbations, and the HREF: Toward effective IC perturbation generation, including blending, in the RRFS
Jeff Beck, NOAA/GSL, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Wolff, C. Schwartz, X. Wang, M. A. Harrold, W. Mayfield, A. T. Johnson, D. Dowell, C. Zhou, D. E. Lippi, V. Vargas Jr., C. R. Alexander, and J. R. Carley

Creation and Evaluation of a CONUS-Wide Gridded Analysis-of-Record for Ice Accumulation in Preparation for NWS Operations
Daniel D. Tripp, Cooperative Institue for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO) at NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. D. Werkema, H. D. Reeves, B. Barjenbruch, and K. J. Sanders

Evaluating the impact of a new land surface package on the medium range weather forecast in Canadian numerical weather prediction system
Nasim Alavi, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Bélair, M. Abrahamowicz, M. Carrera, B. Bilodeau, D. Simjanovski, D. Charpentier, B. Badawy, and S. Leroyer

Integrating WRF-SFIRE-CHEM in NASA Unified WRF (NUWRF)
Jan Mandel, Univ. of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO; and M. Halem, C. Da, J. Sorkin, and M. Weldegaber

Submission Deadline: Thursday, 31 August 2023