A Study to Assess the Economic Benefit of the Next-Generation Geostationary Satellite Hyperspectral Ocean Color Instrument, the Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) OCX

Abstract: In 2023,the Aerospace Corporation began a customer-requested study to assess the projected potential monetary value of societal benefits for the Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) series Ocean Color Instruments (OCX). The main purpose of the study is to determine the potential economic benefits of the OCX sensor as funding decisions are made by government appropriators and decision makers. The GeoXO program is the next-generation follow-on program for NOAA’s current Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R-series (GOES-R) system. GeoXO features a separate operational hyperspectral ocean color (OC) instrument for the first time in NOAA’s (geostationary) satellite history.

OCX Improved Capabilities: The OCX instrument will possess vastly improved temporal and spectral capabilities over current satellite-based OC sensors which are all operating in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), i.e., JPSS VIIRS, Terra & Aqua MODIS, PACE OCI, and Sentinel 3 OLCI. The temporal improvements should overcome some of the current limitations of LEO satellite systems like infrequent observations blocked by cloud cover. Also, OCX will have a spatial resolution comparable to many of the current LEO OC instruments. The OCX will have: (1) a temporal refresh rate of four to six times more often than OLCI, VIIRS, and MODIS; (2) the only operational hyperspectral geostationary capability after 2030, and (3) a spatial resolution comparable to or better than VIIRS, MODIS and OLCI. OCX instruments are planned for both the GeoXO East and West satellites and for refresh with subsequent GeoXO satellites through the series end. These improvements should yield new enhanced products and capabilities for OC end users.

Economic Study Design: This study builds on previous work done to value ocean color observations and the GeoXO sensor.^[1],[2],[3] The study was designed to result in a potential cumulative monetary value of the OCX instruments’ benefits over the ~2032 to 2055 lifetime. To limit study scope, we selected the application for which economic data was most available: Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). The extensive data on the costs of HAB impacts makes this particular value chain the most practical, and reliable source of understanding the value of the current OC instruments, and the improvements in those observations that would be provided by the OCX instrument. Because it is only one value chain of many for OCX (22 were identified in the GeoXO Benefit Analysis^[4]), this estimate will represent a lower bound— with future examination of additional value chains, those benefits can be added to the values derived from this study. Our study was executed via four key phases:

1. Establish a baseline or counterfactual value for current environmental satellite OC data contributions to OC-related forecasts and warnings:
   1. Compile a comprehensive database of the literature on the economic costs of HAB events in the US, analyze the locations and damage categories for each event, and use a meta-analysis benefits transfer approach (regression analysis) to extrapolate damage costs across all known HAB events in the country.
   2. Regression results are also presented in a GIS framework, using data to broadly understand the location-specific economic effects of HABs and impacts on socially vulnerable communities.
2. Evaluate potential improvements in OCX products resulting from observations from the GeoXO instrument:
   1. Obtain an analysis of current environmental satellite OC data percent contributions to OC-related forecasts and warnings from NOAA's Technology, Planning, and Integration for Observation division (TPIO) NOSIA-II Database
   2. Engage with NOAA satellite scientists and HAB product specialists to determine potential improvements in HAB-related products resulting from OC observations.
3. Engage with end-users of OCX-derived HAB products to determine how product improvements may contribute to economic outcomes (i.e., reduction of HAB damages)
4. Project expected improvements across total expected HAB damage costs for a baseline value of the OCX instrument.

Study Challenges: There were several fundamental challenges to overcome:

• Recorded economic impacts literature are limited mostly to studies on major, newsworthy HAB events affecting large areas and populations and whereas the literature often ignores the smaller, likely more frequent events and, thus, underestimating the total value.
• The limited (10-month) duration of the study presented several challenges:
• The research team could effectively engage with a limited number of stakeholders (both due to sheer potential numbers and their availability),
• Insufficient time to consider hyperspectral benefits from the recently-launched PACE OCI instrument (NASA’s new hyperspectral OC instrument),
• Projecting/estimating future OC data improvements, advances over current and new NOAA OC products, climate change effects, and their values.

Economic Techniques and Methods: This presentation will discuss the primary economic techniques our social scientists/economists sub-contractor (TBD Economics, LLC) employed, such as: the value of information, value chains, counterfactuals, loss reduction benefits, expert elicitation, benefits transfer, and key data requirements.

Results: We will discuss the results of this effort, available after August 2024 -- the projected economic value of the benefits from the OCX data and products.

References:

Adkins, J., January 30, 2024, “Estimating the Value of Satellite Observations Using a Value of information/Value Chain Approach,” Panel Presentation in Panel Discussion 7A, “Societal and Economic Benefits of GEO and LEO Satellites,” AMS 2024 Annual Meeting, 20^th Annual Symposium for Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, Baltimore MD

Adkins, J., 2022, “GeoXO benefit analysis,” NOAA. https://doi.org/10.25923/7tqj-r641

Ford, M. and Tomlinson, M., 2021, “The Value of Geostationary Ocean Color”, NOAA Technical Report, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/33278/noaa_33278_DS1.pdf.

Lubar, D., Jamilkowski, M., and Lazo, J., May 3, 2021, “GOES-R Socioeconomic Benefits Study, Phase 1 – Hurricane Products,” Aerospace Report No. ATR-2021-00933; The Aerospace Corporation, https://doi.org/10.25923/z91e-0g91

Lubar, D., Jamilkowski, M., and Lazo, J., December 1, 2022, “GOES-R Socioeconomic Benefits Study, Phase 2 – Assessments of Additional Products and Services,” Aerospace Report No. ATR-2022-02019, The Aerospace Corporation, https://doi.org/10.25923/ht9n-j035

Rouleau, T., Adkins, J., Fooks, J., Kornbluth, A., Antolick, J., February 2024, “Estimating the Benefits of Ocean Color Data in Mitigating HAB Events,” NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 161, (Silver Spring, MD: Global Science and Technology, Inc., 2023). https://doi.org/10.25923/hy61-tb09

[1] Rouleau et al. 2024.

[2] Adkins, J. (2022). GeoXO benefit analysis. Noaa.gov. https://doi.org/10.25923/7tqj-r641

[3] Ford, Michael and Tomlinson, Michelle (2021). The Value of Geostationary Ocean Color. https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/33278

[4] Adkins, J. (2022). GeoXO benefit analysis.