Observed Trends in Recent Years with Fall Foliage in the Outskirts of the New York City Metropolitan Area Due to Observed Weather Conditions

Fall tourism, particularly related to foliage, is an important part of the tourism industry in the Northeast United States. Areas in the Lower Hudson Valley, northwest New Jersey, and eastern Long Island attract day-trippers from the more populated portions of the New York City Metropolitan Area, especially on weekends, during the near-peak to peak periods of fall foliage. Planning activities for communities and businesses related to this are often largely based on average dates driven by climatology. However, in the last decade, observed data at several long-term National Weather Service Cooperative Observer stations show the average date of the first fall freeze and other cool temperature statistics have shifted much later compared to longer-term averages. Since 2019, two seasons, 2021 and 2023, have recorded among the latest first freeze on record at multiple sites with over 75 years of data in areas removed from significant human development. However, despite the late freezes, the quality of foliage can be driven by other factors such as precipitation in preceding weeks, cloud conditions, and even wind. Additionally, nearby ocean water temperatures can play a role in moderating air masses. This presentation will examine observed weather data trends, the observed conditions experienced in locations since 2019 with foliage, and any linkage between the two. The presenter is a nearly three-decade resident of the New York City metropolitan area, having lived in both New Jersey and New York. The presentation will also include a discussion of fall foliage trends from the 1980s and 1990s compared to recently.