Social Capital and Tornado Warning Comprehension, Reception, and Response

Informal communication about severe weather has a distinct capacity to influence individual actions during high impact events. Beyond informal communication, other social capital factors such as trust in government agencies augment both understanding of and reaction to severe weather. This study includes measurements of objective and subjective tornado warning comprehension, warning reception, and warning response from the Severe Weather and Society Survey between 2018 and 2023. Additionally, I use zip code level social capital data from Chetty et al. (2022), including measurements of social group strength and localization alongside measurements of volunteering rates and economic connectedness—a form of bridging social capital—to produce a comprehensive analysis of social capital. Using Huber regression, I find mixed results in the presence of relationships as well as the magnitude of the relationships. Objective and subjective warning comprehension was most positively affected by group strength, followed by volunteering rate and localization of groups. Areas with low social capital in these categories experience heightened vulnerability to tornadoes and localized severe weather. Increasing levels of bridging social capital in the form of connectedness between socioeconomic classes were related with a decline in all but objective comprehension, resulting in a net negative for safety in interconnected areas. These findings strengthen the ability of local leaders to tailor their messaging and outreach to match the varying levels of social capital, increasing safety in vulnerable communities. This study serves to clarify the role of social capital on severe weather understanding, alert reception, and alert response due to mixed results in prior literature. The use of differing measurements of social capital enables additional precision and nuance in the analysis that helps explain prior mixed results.