Research and Developments of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

The Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) is NOAA’s next-generation, ocean-atmosphere-coupled multi-scale numerical model and data assimilation system. As an integral part of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program’s (HFIP) strategic plan to address the Weather Act, two regional versions of HAFS with a uniform resolution of 6 km and an embedded storm-following nest at approximately 2 km horizontal resolution were implemented in operations in 2023 and updated to V2 in 2024. In 2024, significant advancements have been made for the next major upgrade to the model, including innovations in dynamics, nesting, and physics. This report will provide a progress update on the research and developments, and discuss the results from the HFIP real-time experiments (HREx) of HAFS conducted during the 2024 season.